2011年11月10日星期四

Greece and Italy Seek a Solution From Technocrats

ROME — Under the white-hot pressure of the bond markets and the glare of European leaders, both Greece and Italy snapped into action on Thursday, looking to technocratic leaders to pull them back from the brink of chaos.
Greece named Lucas Papademos,Belstaff outlet a former vice president of the European Central Bank, interim prime minister of a unity government charged with preventing the country from default. In Italy, momentum was building behind Mario Monti, a former European commissioner, to replace the once-invincible Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi as early as Monday.

The question now, in both Italy and Greece,Canada goose jackor is whether the technocrats can succeed where elected leaders failed — whether pressure from the European Union backed by the whip of the financial markets will be enough to dislodge the entrenched cultures of political patronage that experts largely blame for the slow growth and financial crises that plague both countries.

Some said there was cause for optimism. “First, the mere fact that they have been asked in such difficult circumstances means that they have a mandate,” said Iain Begg, an expert on the European monetary union at the London School of Economics. “Granted, it’s not a democratic one,Expedition parka but it flows from disaffection with the bickering political class.”

The conventional wisdom from European Union leaders in Brussels has been that greater political consensus in Greece and a change of leadership in Italy could help restore market confidence in the euro. But with investors increasingly viewing European sovereign debt as a toxic asset,Belstaff jacket it seems doubtful that the markets will truly calm down until both Italy and Greece do more than apply fiscal bandages and until the European Union can put more firepower in its bailout mechanisms.

On the surface, Greece and Italy seem remarkably alike. Both countries have entrenched patronage networks that predate the European Union by centuries and suffocating regulations and work rules. And both Mr. Papademos, 64, and Mr. Monti, 68, the president of Bocconi University in Milan, have close ties to European Union officials, who are taking a strong hand in managing the affairs of both countries because the fate of the euro hangs in the balance.

Both face daunting changes. In Italy, a new government will be asked to carry out labor and tax reforms and other growth-enhancing measures. It will also have to write a new electoral law.

In Greece, the government must push through unpopular wage cuts and public sector layoffs in exchange for more foreign aid, and then try to make more structural changes during its brief mandate than the country has introduced in 30 years.

But the similarities end there. Greece is effectively bankrupt and needs a steady hand to guide it. Prime Minister George A. Papandreou ran out of political capital trying to impose austerity on a restive country. Some have criticized him for failing to carry out reforms fast enough, while no party alone has wanted to bear the political cost of stepping into his shoes.

Mr. Papademos must also negotiate with the European Union and banks on the terms of a delicate voluntary write-down of Greek private debt so as to avoid a default — amid a deep recession, a credit crunch and a climate of growing social unrest.

In Italy, where the economic fundaments are far stronger than those of Greece, there is a new wind of optimism mixed with trepidation this week, as the debt crisis led to the abrupt end of the Berlusconi era.

“It’s a historic moment,” said Roberto Napoletano, the editor in chief of the business daily Il Sole 24 Ore, which has been running campaigns to alert Italians that their savings and businesses are at risk without credible leadership. “Italy has to act, but it can do it.”

Indeed, Italy pulled back from the brink on Thursday as investors gained confidence that Mr. Berlusconi would be gone by Monday, replaced by Mr. Monti, an economist with an international reputation. That impression was underscored by the sight of Mr. Monti arriving at the Quirinal Palace on Thursday, where he met for two hours with Italy’s president, Giorgio Napolitano, who is responsible for picking a new head of government.

Mr. Berlusconi himself sent Mr. Monti a telegram wishing him “fruitful work in the interests of the country,” the news agency ANSA reported.

In contrast to Greece, which resents outside interference, Italy has often looked to technocratic leaders backed by outside powers in moments of political transition. It did so in the early 1990s, after the collapse of the postwar political order, and again in the mid-1990s, when a unity government pushed through changes that helped Italy into the euro.

2011年11月7日星期一

Anna Hazare: Breaking His Silence to Win Back India's Middle Class

Anna Hazare, whose campaign for a new anticorruption law galvanized millions of Indians in August, talks to journalists in New Delhi on Nov. 4, 2011
After 19 days of silence, Indian anticorruption crusader Anna Hazare found he had something to say in the early hours of Friday in New Delhi. He had arrived in the city the previous day to take part in consultations on the final draft of the anticorruption bill, which is expected to be passed in the winter session of Parliament beginning the last week of November. Hazare had undertaken his vow of silence — the maun vrat, an ancient Indian soul-cleansing exercise — during a crucial period that saw a dip in popular support for his movement in the face of various allegations of financial irregularities against some of his closest aides.Canada Goose Expedition Parka

The 74-year-old activist, who has been writing a blog for the past few weeks to communicate with his followers, broke his vow on Friday to meet with "all those young men and women, farmers, working class [people], school children from all over the world who were a part of this movement against corruption." Hazare's blog statement underlines the growing fears among his team that they may be losing the backing of the middle class, who had earlier played a defining role in sending the government scampering for a compromise with Hazare on the anticorruption bill. The big question is: Will the break in Hazare's silence be enough to win back the support he so desperately needs? (See photos of Indians protesting the arrest of Anna Hazare.)Belstaff

When Hazare went on a 12-day fast in August to demand a strong ombudsman to curb corruption in the country, thousands of Indians turned out each day to show their support. The honesty and integrity of Team Anna — a group of people known for their social service acts who came together behind Hazare — was much played up. However, two months down the line, Team Anna is battling the same demon of corruption that it had vowed to root out from India.Giacca Moto

The revelation that harmed the movement the most was an exposé in October by the Indian Express against Kiran Bedi, a close associate of Hazare's and a former police officer. The paper claimed that on several occasions when Bedi was invited by organizations for public-speaking engagements, she charged them for business-class tickets but actually flew on economy. Bedi doesn't deny the allegations but maintains the excess money went to benefit the poor. Arvind Kejriwal, one of the main architects of Hazare's movement, was also accused by a former Team Anna member of siphoning off $160,000 for his own NGO from donations to Hazare's movement. Kejriwal was also served a notice by India's federal income-tax body reportedly for failing to pay a penalty of around $20,000 to the government after prematurely leaving his job with the Indian Revenue Service. Kejriwal had called the charges baseless.Belstaff Outlet

Team Anna has dismissed these accusations as politically motivated. Bedi told TIME, "We all got into this movement for a cause. We didn't know the opposition was going to be so strong. Just the way we didn't see the country coming together in such a strong national mass movement, we didn't foresee this becoming so bitter either." Since the claims first surfaced, Bedi has reportedly returned money to one organization; Kejriwal paid the tax fine on Thursday and wrote a four-page letter to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in which he said he was returning the dues "in protest" and that it does not mean he has "accepted the mistake, when I don't know what was the mistake I committed." (See India's 15 most influential people.)

In recent weeks, Team Anna members have come under fire in various other ways too: from a shoe being hurled at Kejriwal at a public meeting to Prashant Bhushan, a key member of the core team, being beaten up by right-wingers for supporting a plebiscite in Kashmir. Analysts feel that these incidents, along with the alleged exposés, indicate a growing sense of dejection among the average Indian that has created a disconnect between the public and Hazare's movement. "People are disappointed mainly because of the very high-profile and shrill pitch that the team has adopted and the slight holier-than-thou attitude," Uday Bhaskar, a New Delhi–based sociopolitical analyst, tells TIME. "These allegations have hurt the credibility of the movement and I don't think that can be easily repaired."

The decision to get directly involved in politics by campaigning against the Congress party in an October by-election in the northern Indian state of Haryana was also an "impudent" step, Bhaskar says. It dealt a blow to the movement's apolitical nature, which was a huge draw for the Indian middle class. However, earlier this week, while everyone waited for him to break his silence, Hazare took some key steps toward resurrecting his flailing movement. On Oct. 30, he announced the framing of a constitution for the movement after which the core team will be reshuffled. In a letter sent to Prime Minister Singh on Nov. 1, he said that his team would not campaign against any political party and threatened to start another fast if the anticorruption bill is not passed by the end of the year. But on Friday he did an about-face and said he would, indeed, campaign against the Congress party in the five poll-bound states because the government was trying to weaken the bill with too many tweaks. (Read how Hazare brought the world's largest democracy to its knees.)

Hazare's frequent U-turns are another factor diluting the unprecedented adulation his movement had earlier enjoyed. If he goes on another fast, his challenge will be bigger than the last — this time around, he won't simply be battling an unjust political system, he will be trying to woo back an entire nation.